Hey there,
Capital is clustering around scarce coastal homes and shovel-ready land. Sutro Cove's 20-unit cliffside plan and Manhattan's record cash share show where leverage now sits.
How will you price land, units, and terms if this pattern holds?
📰 Upcoming in this issue
🌊 Sutro Cove Proposes 20 Oceanfront Homes In SF’s Outer Richmond
💵 64% All-Cash in Manhattan, Mortgage Buyers Lose Ground in 2025
🏗️ 148-Unit Site Lists For $5.92M After $1M December Buy
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Hartford Listings Still 74 Percent Below Pre-Pandemic 🧱
🌊 Sutro Cove Proposes 20 Oceanfront Homes in SF’s Outer Richmond
Natoma Architects filed plans for Sutro Cove, a 20-unit cliffside complex at 641-645 48th Ave overlooking Ocean Beach. The glassy, waving bay window facade, inset balconies, wind shielding courtyards, two income-restricted units, and 18 parking spaces, plus an SB 423 filing, signal a faster path to bring studios through two four-bedroom homes to market.
Key Takeaways:
📍 Cliffside Address: Replaces two houses at 641-645 48th Ave beside Sutro Heights and the Golden Gate National Recreation Area.
🧩 Unit Mix Set: Studios to two four-bedroom homes, including two units at about 80% of the area median income, plus 18 garage spaces.
🪟 Signature Look: Repeating bay windows create a waving facade, with floor-to-ceiling glass and inset balconies facing the Pacific.
⚡ Streamlined Review: Team applied under SB 423 to speed approvals for mixed-income housing in San Francisco’s Outer Richmond.
💵 64% All-Cash in Manhattan, Mortgage Buyers Lose Ground in 2025
Manhattan ended 2025 with a record 64% of condo and co-op sales paid in cash, and nearly 90% above $3 million. High borrowing costs and strong Wall Street bonuses tilted power to proof-of-funds buyers, pushing financed offers aside and rewarding quick closes as inventory stayed tight.
[Note: paywalled/missing; summarizing visible preview]
Key Takeaways:
💰 Record Share Up: Manhattan’s cash share hit 64%, up from 61% in 2024, the highest ever tracked by Miller Samuel for Douglas Elliman.
🏦 Luxury Goes Cash: Nearly 90% of sales above $3 million closed without financing, concentrating negotiating power at the top end of the market.
📈 High-End Momentum: Q4 2025 sales over $4 million rose 11.2% year over year, far outpacing lower price tiers across the borough.
🏷️ Price Anchors: Median condo price reached $1.66 million, co-op median $825,000, underscoring why buyers with mortgages struggled to compete.
🏗️ 148-Unit Site Lists For $5.92M After $1M December Buy
Developers get a shovel-ready play in Manchester: a 148-unit approved site at 206 Oakland St. listed for $5.92 million.
3 Squared LLC bought it in December for $1 million after a 5-2 vote; plans show 15 buildings, garages, a pickleball court, and Union Pond trail access, and the broker projects 25–35% returns amid thin supply.
Key Takeaways:
💸 Price Jump: Bought for $1M in December, now listed at $5.92M, riding entitlements and shovel-ready status to attract build-and-sell players.
📍 Site Specs: 206 Oakland St., 16 acres plus part of a 19.57-acre lot, I-84 within a mile, over 1,000 feet on Union Pond.
🏘️ Plan On Paper: 15 buildings, eight to twelve units each, two to three bedrooms, one-car garages and basements, pickleball court, trail connection.
📈 Market Pitch: Broker packet projects 25–35% profit, saying Manchester is 60% under deposit with low inventory and strong buyer demand.
📊 Take This Edition’s Poll:
If you lived near Ocean Beach, what would you prioritize in a new build?
Why It Matters
Reading these signals well helps you time exits, underwrite bids, and negotiate cleaner deals. Start by mapping cash share, entitlement status, and buyer depth in key submarkets.
Stay disciplined on worst-case rates, rents, and approvals.
Till the next property buzz,
Bailey Watkins
Editor-in-Chief
Residential Real Estate
P.S. Interested in sponsoring a future issue? Just reply to this email and I’ll send packages!