Hey there,
Sun Belt housing is splitting between cash-driven coasts and value suburbs. Palm Beach cash deals, Arizona luxury, and fast-growing Phoenix suburbs point in different directions.
Where should you lean into pricing power versus affordability next year?
📰 Upcoming in this issue
📈 Palm Beach Sales Up 20% as Cash Hits 48%, Condos Tilt to Buyers
⚖️ Arizona Housing Split: Luxury Up, Mid-Tier Cuts, Ownership 6x Wages
🏡 4 Phoenix Suburbs Crack Fast-Growth, Under-$500K List
📈 Trending news
Texas Metros Mixed Big Volume with Big Supply
Indianapolis and Columbus Drew More Investor Attention
What to Watch if Charlotte Demand Cools or Heats
📈 Palm Beach Sales Up 20% as Cash Hits 48%, Condos Tilt to Buyers
Palm Beach County closed in November 2025 with 1,706 sales, up 19.7% year over year, as cash buyers powered 48% of deals. Single-family medians edged to $605,000 and condos to $320,000, while supply split the market: 4.9 months for houses versus 9.1 for condos. Expect more negotiation, not a retreat.
Key Takeaways:
📊 Sales Pop, Prices Hold: Total sales jumped 19.7% to 1,706. Single-family up 19% to 1,001. Median prices barely budged, $605,000 for houses and $320,000 for condos.
💵 Cash Rules Closings: Cash buyers made 48% of deals, including 56.5% of condo sales and 41.4% of single-family, far above the 27% national share.
💎 Luxury Still Roars: 2025 is on pace for 426 sales at $10 million plus, just shy of 2021’s 444, keeping high-end demand firm.
🧭 Condo Buyers’ Edge: Months’ supply hit 9.1 for condos versus 4.9 for single-family. List-to-sale ratios fell to 92% and 94%, respectively.
⚖️ Arizona Housing Split: Luxury Up, Mid-Tier Cuts, Ownership 6x Wages
Arizona buyers and sellers are living in two markets, with luxury homes setting records and mid-tier listings slowing with more price cuts. Rates eased slightly, and inventory stayed uneven, so affordability remains tight at roughly 6x median wages, pushing buyers toward concessions and sharper pricing next.
Key Takeaways:
⚙️ Two Markets, Two Speeds: Luxury posts record prices and fast moves, while entry and mid-tier see longer shelf life, fewer bids, and more reductions.
🤝 Buyer Levers Return: Buyers negotiate rate buydowns, closing cost credits, and repair credits, gaining time to inspect, compare comps, and write cleaner offers.
📉 Affordability Strain: Owning the median home costs about 6x median wages, so supply growth or faster wage gains must ease entry-level pressure.
🏷️ Uneven Inventory Plays: Scarce luxury listings keep bidding wars alive. Entry and mid-tier show more inventory and some unrealistic pricing, inviting harder negotiations.
🏡 4 Phoenix Suburbs Crack Fast-Growth, Under-$500K List
A new ranking of America’s fastest-growing affordable suburbs put four Phoenix-area spots in the top 26, with home values from $360,155 to $483,000 and growth near 10%. The list capped home values under $500,000 using Zillow and Census data, signaling where buyers and builders may chase 2026 migration and entry-level demand.
Key Takeaways:
🏷️ Who Made It: Maricopa #9, Buckeye #15, San Tan Valley #16, Goodyear #26. All clocked strong, broad-based growth with sub-$500K values.
💲 Price Snapshot: Home values: Maricopa $360,155, Buckeye $408,000, San Tan Valley $410,000, Goodyear $483,000, per Zillow data cited.
📈 Growth Signal: Each suburb recorded population gains of around 10%, underscoring Phoenix as a magnet for new households and steady in-migration.
🌎 National Context: Stockbridge, Georgia, ranked #1. Texas placed 13 suburbs versus eight in 2024. Florida had four. California had none.
📊 Take This Edition’s Poll:
Rank your top priority when markets split by segment and negotiation power shifts
Why It Matters
Reading these splits helps you price, position, and time capital more precisely. Start by mapping cash share, months of supply, and under-$500,000 price bands in your markets.
Ground every move in local incomes and realistic rent or resale assumptions.
Till the next property buzz,
Bailey Watkins
Editor-in-Chief
Residential Real Estate
P.S. Interested in sponsoring a future issue? Just reply to this email and I’ll send packages!